PDF Ebook The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking, by Jeff Passan
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The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking, by Jeff Passan
PDF Ebook The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking, by Jeff Passan
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Review
"Russell Carleton is one of the industry’s sharpest and most creative analysts, and watching him think through a puzzling baseball question is as much fun as watching Mike Trout battle an ace pitcher. There is no person involved in baseball—from the fan to the manager, from the field to the front office—who won’t learn from this entertaining book." —Sam Miller, ESPN, co-author, The Only Rule Is It Has to Work"What Daniel Kahneman did for behavioral economics, Russell Carleton has now done for baseball, opening up a new window on the sport, looking at it through a new lens while making it accessible to the lay reader." —Keith Law, ESPN, author, Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball"Nearly 15 years post-Moneyball, baseball continues to change; the major league industry continues to have access to more data and more science. More and more conventional practices are being challenged. In many ways change is accelerating, and the way we understand and think about the game must also evolve. There is no one better to tell this story than Russell Carleton, who is not only one of the preeminent writers and analysts in the game at Baseball Prospectus, but who also worked inside an MLB front office and in the field of clinical psychology, which is becoming of greater interest to clubs. The Shift is a riveting read and an important baseball book." —Travis Sawchik, FanGraphs, author, Big Data Baseball: Math, Miracles, and the End of a 20-Year Losing Streak
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About the Author
Russell Carleton is a baseball writer, researcher, and fan, living in Atlanta. He has been a regular contributor to Baseball Prospectus since 2009, writing about advanced statistical analysis in baseball, with an emphasis on the gory mathematical details. He holds a Ph.D. in clinical psychology from DePaul University in Chicago, and has provided statistical consultation to several teams in Major League Baseball. Jeff Passan is a baseball columnist at Yahoo! Sports and author of the New York Times Bestseller The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports.
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Product details
Paperback: 368 pages
Publisher: Triumph Books (March 8, 2018)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1629375446
ISBN-13: 978-1629375441
Product Dimensions:
5.5 x 1.2 x 8.5 inches
Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.2 out of 5 stars
28 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#233,144 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Russell Carleton has done a nice job of breaking down various aspects of recent trends in baseball and highlights areas that have yet to be exploited (like sending runners home from 3rd more frequently than what occurs now in sac fly situations). I was particular interested in his deep analysis of a trend every baseball watcher is familiar with - the infield shift. He also did a nice job of examining success in the amateur draft. Yes, there is math involved. But Carleton does a nice job of explaining the how and why behind it so that it isn't too overwhelming for the unfamiliar. Carleton also tackles the parts of the games that listeners often hear commentators discuss, like luck and momentum, and his thoughts are well worth reading.Carleton's insight is augmented by a thoroughly enjoyable writing style. He blends a good mix of humor and personal anecdotes that makes the book easy to dive into for long stretches.Recommended for all baseball fans, especially those interested in advanced stats.Full disclosure: Carleton and I were loosely associated 10 plus years ago as we both wrote for Evan Brunell's Most Valuable Network blogsite. He wrote for Statistically Speaking, while I wrote about the Pirates. I don't recall us having any interaction as my time was mostly spent whining about the state of my favorite team and, since I believe I was the oldest long term writer on the site, I occasionally gave out (somewhat) unsolicited relationship advice on the internal message board. The site was a very fun place to be in the early days of blogs.
First let me say that I hated the first 11% of my kindle book. I almost gave up. DON'T! This is an extremely enjoyable book by a very likeable author whose love for the game is palpable in his stories and writing. He is also a humorist and a psychologist to boot. His purpose is to shed some light on the SHIFT or evolution in baseball thinking which has consumed the sport in the last decade. The Shift does not refer only to the explosion of the defensive shifts in the game, but rather the movement away from the human element to a more data driven game. As a psychologist, the author tries to reconcile them for the game and for the reader's perspective of how and why the game is played today as opposed to twenty years ago.(Think "The Trouble with the Curve" meets "Moneyball". The concepts in the book are not all novel or ahead of the curve, but they are important for the fan to understand. Carleton does a very nice job explaining WAR and emergent value, expected value, and how General managers go about trying to add value to a team so that every possible advantage is gained. He offers proof in the form of statistics for his theories. t's not an easy read and it flies in the face of us old guys' beliefs in certain ideas(steals, bunts, when to run on a sac fly),but it is very thoughtfully written. I am amazed at how granular the sabermetricians have become. They analyze every pitch, every outcome, every out, every hit, and come up with statistical proof to show why bunting a man over to second does not improve run producing percentages. Everything is examined for "what is the expected value of a play or non act". The same is true of a steal. At what point is stealing second base worthwhile in increasing the chances of a run? For example, based on 2017 statistics, unless the runner has better than a 73.94 % of making it safely, it isn't worth trying. When should a runner tag on a sac fly from third base with one out? It turns out, he should go practically every time. One thing I thought was cool was the discussion of whether the KC third base coach should have sent Alex Gordon in the final game of the 2014 WS when there were two outs and Sal perez was up. He makes a persuasive argument based on Perez' OBP during the season and the playoffs that there was a better chance of an errant throw or missed tag than the chance that Perez would drive him home. There is a lot here to digest, including leverage situations for relievers rather than just the bottom of the 9th(a concept used by Francona with Andrew Miller), and the expected extra runs attributable to catchers for good pitch framing based on stats of pitches. Carleton also makes a statistically driven case that defensive shifts may actually do more harm than good. Two other things I found fascinating. First, he produces evidence to show that there is little if no correlation between giving a pitcher three days rest rather than four with a result of fewer injuries. Second, he did a computer simulated season of games to judge whether traditional notions of batting orders made a real difference. Surprise! Only 1.5 runs scored was the difference in the year. The use of bull-penning and high leverage usage of relievers, and the value added by player versatility are discussed, and he debunks some myths including the myth of momentum as an influence on games. So, this is a very helpful, funny and well explained(except for Cox regression) book about the evolution in thinking and the myths still viable in the game. Great job
If you like baseball analytics, this book would be well worth picking up.MLB teams have long picked over all the low-hanging analytics fruit (value of walks and on-base average, defensive metrics), and so Carleton discusses some of the more contemporary hidden sources of value that teams now try to exploit (pitch framing, players that can play multiple defensive positions), etc. Carleton also analyzes various common managerial gaffes (not using elite closers in the ninth inning of tie games), and one of the more interesting sections was a discussion of alternatives to the modern 5 man starting rotation, and why the 5 man rotation will probably not go away any time in the foreseeable future.The author loves to scour data, and he offers lots of little factoids, while not necessarily recipes for building winning baseball teams, will be interesting to people who take their baseball seriously. One interesting example was an analysis of 0-1 counts. It is well known of course that pitchers gain a tremendous advantage simply by getting the count to 0-1, but Carleton shows that batters who get to 0-1 by fouling off a pitch fare much better in the at-bat than do hitters who swing and miss at strike one or who take strike one. This is a very plausible hypothesis, but it's interesting to see the data behind it as well.Really my only complaint about the book is that the title suggests that there will be much more analysis of the shift than is actually done (about one chapter of the book is solely dedicated to the shift). One very interesting conclusion the author reaches is that the effectiveness of the shift has decreased in recent years, in part because of an uptick in walk rates when the shift is on. The author also uses game theory to determine when and how often players should consider bunting to an empty half-infield when some of the more extreme shifts are used.For better or worse, the author doesn't get too bogged down in the mathematics behind the analysis. He throws out fancy terms like Cox regression and logistic regression, but there's little discussion of the gory details or how an interested reader could go about duplicating his findings. Presumably, this is to keep the book layman friendly, but I suspect a good part of the target audience might like to see some of the details here a little more flushed out.
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